Sunday, March 23, 2008

Box Office: Horton #1, Browns #2, Shutter edges Drillbit for #3

Horton Hears a Who

Horton Hears a Who (Fox) continued its box office roll Saturday, adding another $9.45M, but it was down 10% from its monstrous Good Friday. The CGI animated Dr. Suess adaptation should grab another $6.61M or so on Easter Sunday for a 3-day of $26.56M, giving Horton the all-time 4th-best Easter weekend box office performance.

ALL-TIME BEST EASTER WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PERFORMERS
1.Scary Movie - $40.2M
2. Panic Room - $30M
3. The Matrix - $27.7M
4. Horton Hears a Who - $26.56M (estimate)
5. Liar, Liar - $25.3M
6. Anger Management - $25M
7. Blades of Glory - $22.5M
8. Guess Who - $20.6M
9. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $20M
10. U-571 - $19.5M

My revised weekend projection of $26.56M is off slightly from the $28.15M I forecast Friday night, but Horton Hears a Who will have banked $87.93M by Monday morning, giving it the all-time 3rd-best 10-day gross for a movie opening in March.

ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR MOVIES OPENING IN MARCH
1. 300 - $129.1M
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $115.7M
3. Horton Hears a Who - $87.93M (estimate)
4. Ice Age - $87.2M
5. Wild Hogs - $77M

Also, its 10-day performance will be #12 all-time for animated films.

ALL-TIME BEST 10-DAY GROSSES FOR ANIMATED FILMS
1. Shrek the Third - $203.3M
2. Shrek 2 - $184.8M
3. Finding Nemo - $144M
4. The Incredibles - $143.2M
5. The Simpsons Movie - $128M
6. Monsters Inc. - $122.1M
7. Cars - $117M
8. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $115.7M
9. Ratatouille - $109.5M
10. Madagascar - $100.3M
11. Happy Feet - $99.2M
12. Horton Hears a Who - $87.93M (estimate)
13. Shark Tale - $87.3M
14. Ice Age - $87.2M
15. Toy Story 2 - $80.4M

Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns was down 11% from its opening day for $7.29M, and the 5th feature film from the African American auteur will likely give him another $20M+ opening weekend. I'm anticipating $4.59M on Easter Sunday for Browns, completing a $20.09M opening weekend, which is solid, but #4 on his box office resume.

ALL-TIME TYLER PERRY OPENINGS
1. Tyler Perry's Madea's Family Reunion - $30M opening
2. Diary of a Mad Black Woman - $21.9M opening
3. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married - $21.3M opening
4. Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns - $20.1M opening (estimate)
5. Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls - $11.2M opening

New releases Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) and Shutter (Fox) are in a dead heat for Saturday, but it looks as though the low budget horror flick will win the weekend. I expect Shutter to finish #3 with $10.63M, while the poorly-reviewed Owen Wilson vehicle written by Seth Rogen will manage only $10.12M. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) will be 5th for the weekend with $8.84M, pushing Roland Emmerich's prehistoric epic past $76M domestic.

Under the Same Moon (Weinstein), the Audience Award winner at the 2007 Sundance Film Festival, continues to perform very well at its 266 locations with $935,000 on Saturday. The film, which features Ugly Betty's America Ferrera in a small role, will finish the weekend with about $2.34M, which should be good enough for the top 10.

Here is how I think the 3-Day PTA scoreboard will look.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) - $14,000 PTA
2. Boarding Gate (Magnolia) - $12,000 PTA
3. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) - $10,018 PTA
4. The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $9,694 PTA
5. Love Songs (IFC Films) - $9,000 PTA
6. Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) - $8,532 PTA
7. Race (UTV Communications) - $7,292 PTA
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $6,707 PTA
9. The Grand (Anchor Bay) - $5,500 PTA
10. The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) - $4,426 PTA

And here are the Early Saturday and Revised 3-Day Estimates.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $9.45M - $2,386 PTA - $81.3M
2. NEW - Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) - $7.29M - $3,638 PTA - $15.49M cume
3. NEW – Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) - $3.72M - $1,219 PTA - $7.77M cume
4. NEW – Shutter (Fox) - $3.67M - $1,334 PTA - $8.32M cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) - $3.44M - $996 PTA - $74M cume
6. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) -$1.76M - $1,096 PTA - $18.3M cume
7. Never Back Down (Summit) - $1.72M - $630 PTA - $15.5M
8. College Road Trip (Disney) - $1.67M - $650 PTA - $30.8M cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) - $1.54M - $729 PTA - $64.3M cume
10. NEW – Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) - $935,000 - $3,515 PTA - $2.34M
11. Doomsday (Universal) - $860,000 - $444 PTA - $8.3M cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $830,000 - $699 PTA - $22M cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $600,000 - $1,130 PTA - $7.1M cume
14. Semi Pro (New Line) - $470,000 - $411 PTA - $32M cume
15. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $400,000 - $326 PTA -$67.4M cume
*NEW – Race (UTV Communications) - $275,000 - $2,865 PTA - $500,000 cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $210,000 - $4,286 PTA - $1.6M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $205,000 - $718 PTA - $5.6M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) - $125,000 - $2,049 PTA - $1.6M cume
*No Country For Old Men (Miramax) - $100,000 - $437 PTA - $74M
*Funny Games (Warner Independent) - $95,000 - $328 PTA - $944,000 cume
*There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $85,000 - $379 PTA - $39.6M cume
*Married Life (Sony Classics) - $45,000 - $1,731 PTA - $293,000
*Paranoid Park (IFC Films) - $37,000 - $1,028 PTA - $239,000 cume
*NEW – The Hammer (International Film Circuit) - $32,000 - $1,600 PTA - $63,000 cume
*Snow Angels (Warner Independent) - $22,000 - $1,467 PTA - $91,000 cume
*CJ7 (Sony Classics) - $16,000 - $762 PTA - $150,000 cume
*NEW – Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) - $10,000 - $5,000 PTA - $22,000 cume
*NEW – Sleepwalking (Overture) - $9,000 - $130 PTA - $80,000 cume
*NEW – Love Songs (IFC Films) - $7,200 - $3,600 PTA - $13,200 cume
*NEW – Boarding Gate (Magnolia) - $4,952 - $4,952 PTA - $8,803 cume
*NEW – The Grand (Anchor Bay) - $4,128 - $2,064 PTA - $8,282 cume
*NEW – Irina Palm (Strand) - $1,414 - $1,414 PTA - $2,634 cume
*NEW – Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) - $1,122 - $1,122 PTA - $1,746 cume
*NEW – Shelter (Regent) - $1,069 - $1,069 PTA - $2,284 cume
*NEW – FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) - $703 - $703 PTA - $3,474 cume
*NEW – Kenny (Arcangelo) - $416 - $416 PTA - $678 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) - $26.56M - $6,707 PTA - $87.9M
2. NEW - Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) - $20.09M - $10,018 PTA - $20.09M cume
3. NEW – Shutter (Fox) - $10.52M - $3,824 PTA - $10.52M cume
4. NEW – Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) - $10.12M - $3,313 PTA - $10.12M cume
5. 10,000 B.C. (Warner Bros) - $8.84M - $2,561 PTA - $76.3M cume
6. Never Back Down (Summit) - $4.65M - $1,704 PTA - $16.6M
7. College Road Trip (Disney) - $4.5M - $1,748 PTA - $31.8M cume
8. The Bank Job (Lionsgate) -$4.23M - $2,625 PTA - $19.5M cume
9. Vantage Point (Sony) - $3.68M - $1,737 PTA - $65.1M cume
10. NEW – Under the Same Moon (Weinstein) - $2.26M - $8,532 PTA - $3M
11. Doomsday (Universal) - $2.13M- $1,102 PTA - $8.8M cume
12. The Other Boleyn Girl (Sony) - $2.08M - $1,759 PTA - $22.6M cume
13. Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day (Focus) - $1.42M - $2,689 PTA - $7.4M cume
14. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $1.2M - $979 PTA -$67.7M cume
15. Semi Pro (New Line) - $1.18M - $1,037 PTA - $32.3M cume
*NEW – Race (UTV Communications) - $700,000 - $7,292 PTA - $679,000 cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $495,000 - $2,292 PTA - $5.9M cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $475,000 - $9,694 PTA - $1.7M cume
*The Band’s Visit (Sony Classics) - $270,000 - $4,426 PTA - $1.6M cume
*No Country For Old Men (Miramax) - $240,000 - $1,048 PTA - $74.1M
*Funny Games (Warner Independent) - $235,000 - $810 PTA - $1M cume
*There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $210,000 - $938 PTA - $39.6M cume
*Married Life (Sony Classics) - $115,000 - $4,423 PTA - $324,000
*Paranoid Park (IFC Films) - $90,000 - $2,500 PTA - $265,000 cume
*NEW – The Hammer (International Film Circuit) - $83,000- $4,150 PTA - $83,000 cume
*Snow Angels (Warner Independent) - $50,000 - $3,333 PTA - $106,000 cume
*CJ7 (Sony Classics) - $42,000 - $2,000 PTA - $160,000 cume
*NEW – Planet B-Boy (Elephant Eye Films) - $28,000 - $14,000 PTA - $28,000 cume
*Sleepwalking (Overture) - $22,000 - $319 PTA - $86,000 cume
*NEW - Love Songs (IFC Films) - $18,000 - $9,000 PTA - $18,000 cume
*NEW – Boarding Gate (Magnolia) - $12,000 - $12,000 PTA - $12,000 cume
*NEW – The Grand (Anchor Bay) - $11,000 - $5,500 PTA - $11,000 cume
*NEW – FLOW: For Love of Water (Independent) - $3,900 - $3,900 PTA - $3,900 cume
*NEW – Irina Palm (Strand) - $3,553 - $3,553 PTA - $3,553 cume
*NEW – Shelter (Regent) - $3,000- $3,000 PTA - $3,000 cume
*NEW – Poisoned by Polonium (Kino) - $2,419 - $2,419 PTA - $2,419 cume
*NEW – Kenny (Arcangelo) - $928 - $928 PTA - $928 cume

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