The massive drop of 55% for Fox's schlocky Alien Versus Predator: Requiem makes sense. The movie wasn't screened for critics and fanboy zeal can only get you so far. The sequel to the 2004 original, fell from about $9.5M on Christmas Day to $4.28M on Wednesday.
Harder to explain is the fact that The Bucket List (Warner Bros) dropped a staggering 63% from Christmas Day. The Rob Reiner-directed oldster comedy delivered a $10,000+ PTA on Tuesday for a $162,000 haul at its 16 locations. Today, it fell to $59,881 for a PTA of $3,743. Can it be that older boomers all dragged their families to see Bucket List on opening day, and interest in the film is limited to the older set? I suspect that's the reason for the Wednesday plummet in ticket sales. Then there's Oprah Winfrey's The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM), which fell 42% from its $3.6M opening day. The fact that Oprah produced the movie and has her name on it has undoubtedly frontloaded the business. We'll see if the Denzel Washington-directed Debaters has legs Thursday – Sunday.
Since Christmas 2002, Bucket List and AVP: Requiem and have suffered the 2 biggest day after Christmas drops on record and Oprah's Debaters isn't far behind, which can't bode well moving forward for these titles.
BIGGEST DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS PERCENTAGE DROPS SINCE 2002
1. 2007 – The Bucket List – 16 locations – down 63% (Estimate)
2. 2007 – Alien Versus Predator: Requiem – 2,563 locations – down 55% (Estimate)
3. 2006 – Black Christmas – 1,278 locations - down 47%
4. 2007 - The Great Debaters - 1,164 locations – down 42% (Estimate)
4. 2006 – Curse of the Golden Flower – 60 locations - down 42%
6. 2005 – The Producers – down 37%
7. 2005 – King Kong – 3,576 locations - down 34%
8. 2006 - Dreamgirls – 852 locations - down 33%
9. 2006 – The Painted Veil – 4 locations – down 32%
20. 2006 – Letters From Iwo Jima –5 locations – down 31%
11. 2005 – Wolf Creek – 1,749 locations – down 25%
12. 2006 – Apocalypto – 2,144 locations – down 23%
13. 2006 – The Nativity Story – 1,824 locations – down 22%
14. 2004 – Beyond the Sea – 6 locations – down 22%
15. 2006 – The Good German – 19 locations – down 21%
After Nic Cage's Treasure, Will Smith and I Am Legend (Warner Bros) held off Fox's Alvin $8.8M - $8M. Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) grabbed another $3.6M on Wednesday, and the Tom Hanks/Julia Roberts political comedy has now filibustered a respectable $19.5M in its first 6 days of release.
.S. I Love You (Warner Bros) benefited from the day after Christmas, which is often kind to "chick flicks." The Hilary Swank Gerard Butler tearjerker was #6 on Wednesday with an estimated $3.33M for a new cume of $13.38M. Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd Dreamworks/Paramount) fell 18% for just shy of $2.6M, and it has now sliced its way to $16.23M since Friday.
t's no surprise that Paul Thomas Anderson's Golden Globe nominated There Will Be Blood has opened huge at its 2 locations. The film, which has made Daniel Day Lewis the betting favorite for the Best Actor Oscar, generated a massive $33,296 PTA for a total take of $66,592. This can only help awards prospects for Best Picture and PT Anderson along with Daniel Day Lewis.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY WEDNESDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - National Treasure: Book of Secrets (Disney) — $11.47M, $2,994 PTA [$76.91M cume]
2. I Am Legend (Warner Bros.) — $8.8M, $2,432 PTA [$159.75M cume]
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (Fox) — $8.03M, $2,295 PTA [$102.5M cume]
4. NEW - Alien vs. Predator: Requiem - $4.28M, $1,671 PTA [$13.79M cume]
5. NEW Charlie Wilson's War (Universal) — $3.6M, $1,399 PTA [$19.55M cume]
6. NEW P.S. I Love You (Warner Bros.) — $3.33M, $1,359 PTA [$13.38M cume]
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $2.79M, $2,800 PTA [$12.59M cume]
8. NEW Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks/Paramount) — $2.59M, $2,079 PTA [$16.23M cume]
9. NEW - The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep (Sony) - $2.4M, $869 PTA [$4.79M cume]
10. NEW - The Great Debaters (Weinstein/MGM) - $2.09M, $1,796 PTA [$5.69M cume]
11. The Golden Compass (New Line) — $2.04M, $904 PTA [$53.4M cume]
12. Enchanted (Disney) — $1.61M, $725 PTA [$102M cume]
13. NEW Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story (Sony) — $1.19M, $450 PTA [$7.44M cume]
14. Atonement (Focus) — $660,000, $2,157 PTA [$7.37M cume]
15. No Country for Old Men (Miramax) — $530,000, $552 PTA [$38.3M cume]
16. The Kite Runner (Paramount Vantage) — $430,000, $1,141 PTA [$3M cume]
*The Savages (Fox Searchlight) — $83,000, $1,169 PTA [$1M cume]
*NEW - There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $66,592, $33,296 PTA [$66,592 cume]
*NEW - The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $59,881, $3,743 PTA [$222,000 cume]
*The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Miramax) — $50,400, $1,200 PTA [$556,000 cume]
*NEW - Persepolis (Sony Classics) -$17,817, $2,545 [$55,000 cume]
* NEW Steep (Sony Classics) — $4,628, $272 PTA [$39,834 cume]
*NEW Blonde Ambition (First Look) — $334, $42 PTA [$2,111 cume]
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Visit here to subscribe to these commentsUser comment: By: TheDohDohReleasing AVP and the Bucket List on Christmas day was a bad move. There are way too many new films in theaters, leaving little crossover besides niche audiences for each film. A lot of people don't seem to know that AVP is even out. Another trend that I don't grasp is why studios are releasing big films like Sweeney Todd and the Bucket List in only a moderate number of theaters. It's one thing to roll these out over a month in dozens of theaters like Juno or There Will Be Blood, but when you go to 1,000 theaters - it's bad for a number of reasons. 1) people see low box office numbers on the nightly news instead of blowout figures like $20m, and believe these films must be bad. 2) the word of mouth is harder to catch on because some people have seen it, recommend it, and then people can't find it near them. Bucket List isn't playing in my town and there a huge market for that film here. What happened to Jesse James is the harshest example this year, Into the Wild also (that movie was on Oprah but took far too long to get into theaters). Johnny Depp w/ Burton and Jack Nicholson will bring 'em in. No need for the "show up late at the party" method of distribution.
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